Center for Stochastic Dynamics Seminar by James Greene
Speaker:
James Greene, assistant professor of mathematics, Clarkson University
Title:
Mathematical Models and Control Strategies Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Infectious Diseases Generally
Abstract:
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been much scientific interest in the ability of mathematical models to both predict disease dynamics, as well as their use in designing intervention strategies that can mitigate disease burden on medical infrastructure, reduce transmission, minimize negative economic and psychological impacts, etc. In this talk, we will present a number of recent modeling projects which address different questions of interest related to the COVID-19 pandemic and infectious diseases generally. Specifically, we will discuss early novel models of the spread of COVID-19, which capture both the effect of asymptomatic transmission and social distancing via explicit compartments. We will then discuss the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions in both reducing peak infection numbers ("flattening the curve") while simultaneously minimizing time spent in strict lockdowns; general optimal design strategies can be numerically seen to exist throughout a large class of epidemic models, which we show to be rigorously justified in the SIR model. Opening/closing strategies in schools/universities will also be studied, where we analyze robust feedback laws which maximize in-person instruction while keeping infections below a critical threshold. Furthermore, as mutations lead to new viral strains, such as the Omicron and Delta variants, important questions related to evolutionary fitness/competition exist, such as the effect of selection with respect to infectivity vs. disease severity. Again utilizing relatively simple mathematical models, we study the impact of selection on mutant variants, and characterize necessary parameter changes yielding a fitness advantage. We note that in almost all of the scientific questions of interest addressed here, transient disease dynamics are of fundamental importance, which will be a theme throughout this talk.
Meeting ID: 974 8665 9782
Passcode: 423168